Assessing the Climate Impact of Green GDP: A Model for Estimating Global Climate Mitigation Effects

Abstract

This article develops a comprehensive model for estimating the global climate mitigation effects through the lens of Green GDP (GGDP). By integrating environmental costs—such as pollution treatment and natural resource consumption—into the traditional GDP framework, the study offers a more accurate representation of sustainable economic health. Key elements considered include air, soil, and water pollution treatment costs, as well as the consumption of natural resources. The model applies linear algebra to quantify the GGDP and analyzes the data for both China and the United States, demonstrating that while the U.S. experienced a 48.6% reduction in GGDP, China’s GGDP became negative, reflecting severe environmental costs outweighing economic growth. Furthermore, the study builds a regression model to explore the relationship between environmental factors and global temperature, highlighting the significant impact of carbon dioxide emissions, water consumption, and solid waste on climate change. The findings underline the importance of GGDP as a measure of sustainable economic growth and its potential for guiding climate mitigation policies globally.