Research on the Integrated Impact Assessment Model of Extreme Weather in Agro-tourism Based on ARIMA and Entropy Weight Approach

Xupei He; Lige Deng; Ye Deng

doi:10.54097/ea6sdg24

Authors

Xupei He
Lige Deng
Ye Deng

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/ea6sdg24

Keywords:

Agro-tourism, Extreme weather, ARIMA, Entropy Weighting, Gaussian Mixture Clustering Model.

Abstract

Agro-tourism has been developing rapidly in China and globally, but agro-tourism development is deeply affected by the frequency of extreme weather in the region and other constraints on tourism development. Based on the above viewpoints, this paper synthesizes the frequency of extreme weather and the key factors of regional tourism development, and discusses the development of agritourism layout in mainland China. Firstly, based on ARIMA time series model to construct the risk assessment system of agro-tourism industry affected by extreme weather, to predict the boundary value of the risk of damage to agro-tourism industry caused by natural disasters, to provide reference for the development of agro-tourism industry. Secondly, the Spearman-entropy weighting method model is used to determine the weight of each influencing factor by combining the six key factors restricting the development of agro-tourism industry. Finally, the Gaussian mixed clustering model combines the extreme weather risk assessment index and the weights of each influencing factor to derive the results of the assessment of the development of agro-tourism in the Chinese region, which further determines the feasibility of the development of the region, and provides inspiration and basis for the development of agro-tourism.

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