Security Prediction and Path Analysis of China's Robot Industry Chain Based on Double Difference Estimation

Abstract

The world situation is constantly changing, the import and export industry chain is closely related to a country's foreign relations. The recent Sino-US trade war has had a profound impact on the pattern of China's import and export industry. As a strategic industry in China's national economy, the robotics industry is a pillar industry that ensures the security of China's industrial and supply chains. There is a lack of specialized research on robots and quantitative analysis based on customs import and export data in existing domestic papers related to the industrial chain. Papers on the China US trade war mostly rely on existing data for analysis, with few establishing evaluation models and constructing relevant safety indices. Therefore, in order to study the current security status of the robot industry chain, analyze its potential risks and the connection with the US China trade war, and find a path to resist the impact of external factors on the industry chain, we used the HS8-bit code of China's robot industry chain from January 2018 to December 2022 to construct the HHI index to characterize the security status of the robot industry. We used a difference in differences estimation model to evaluate the impact of the US China trade war on the robot industry chain, and concluded that the impact of the US China trade war will significantly increase the risk of the robot industry chain. On this basis, we further established a model to analyze the path of China's robot industry chain to resist the China US trade war. The results show that expanding the scale of high-quality introduction of foreign investment, promoting the construction of a national market, and enhancing independent innovation capabilities can all to some extent resist the negative effects of the China US trade war on the robot industry chain.