A Study on Sustainable Tourism Development in Juneau Based on Tourism-Economic Simulation Model

Abstract

With the increasingly prominent environmental problems, the sustainable development of tourism has gradually become the focus of academia and industry. This study establishes a population flow ternary function model to balance tourism development and environmental protection, achieving Nash equilibrium. Based on seasonal fluctuations, cruise ship numbers, and ticket price elasticity, the model controls tourist flow. By increasing peak season ticket prices and reducing cruise ships, the model successfully controls tourist numbers during high seasons, alleviating environmental pressure. The research also constructs a tourism-economic simulation model that forecasts economic indicators for the next three decades, showing stable economic returns of approximately $35 million annually within environmental constraints. The model regulates tourism development through market mechanisms rather than public investment and demonstrates tourism's significant contribution to employment, with labor income accounting for about 52% of direct consumption. This research provides a scientific basis for developing tourism policies that balance economic benefits with sustainability goals.