The Dilemma of New Energy Transition in Traditional Automakers from A Path Dependence Perspective: A Case Study of Toyota Motor Corporation

Abstract

Since 2010, significant advancements in new energy technologies—particularly those centered around electric power—have been widely applied across multiple sectors, with the automobile manufacturing industry being a notable example. These technologies have become fundamental to the development of new energy vehicles (NEVs), substantially improving their efficiency, driving range, and overall performance. The emergence of electric and hybrid vehicle models is reshaping travel behavior while making significant contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, thereby playing a critical role in climate and environmental protection. Toyota Motor Corporation introduced its first hybrid vehicle, the Prius, as early as the 1990s and has since maintained a strong competitive edge in the manufacturing, research and development, and sales of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). However, over the past decade, with the rapid acceleration of battery electric vehicle (BEV) technology—particularly in China and the United States—Toyota has struggled to keep pace. As the world’s leading automobile manufacturer, Toyota has not only fallen behind in BEV innovation but has also experienced a decline in its HEV market share due to the rise of emerging NEV companies in these key markets. This paper takes Toyota Motor Corporation as the focal point of analysis and proposes the existence of a path dependence model embedded within the company’s strategic framework—namely, a model characterized by ‘high added value coupled with patent protection.’ This entrenched approach has arguably constrained Toyota’s ability to gain a competitive advantage in the transition from HEV to BEV. In addition, this study employs econometric and empirical methods to draw corresponding conclusions and offer policy-relevant recommendations for the industry's technological transition.