Research On the Dynamic Influence of Rural Finance on Rural Industry Revitalization in Heilongjiang Province: Based On TVP-VAR Model

Abstract

Rural revitalization strategy is the core power to promote China's agricultural modernization, Heilongjiang as a large agricultural province, its rural finance and industrial revitalization synergy has an important research value. Based on the time series data of rural areas in Heilongjiang from 1990 to 2023, this paper analyzes the correlation mechanism between rural finance and industrial revitalization dynamically based on TVP-VAR model and MCMC method. The results show that: (1) the long-term cumulative effect of financial scale is significant, and it is necessary to invest continuously to support industrial upgrading; (2) The time-varying difference of financial factors is prominent. Residents rely on short-term stimulus at the initial stage of consumption and release medium and long-term power for industrial optimization at the later stage. Research innovation lies in introducing dynamic perspective and regional targeted analysis, revealing policy stability and structural adaptation is the key to release financial efficiency, providing scientific basis for Heilongjiang to optimize resource allocation and formulate time-series policy, and expanding methodology of regional economic research.