Correlation Analysis of Tourism and Urban Economic Development Based on VAR Model: An Empirical Study Taking Beijing as An Example

Abstract

Under the background of regional coordinated development, Beijing's tourism economy has become an important driving force for promoting high-quality regional development. Therefore, in order to further explore the correlation between economic and tourism development and promote the coordinated development of tourism and urban economy, this paper constructs a VAR model based on the annual data of the number of tourists received, the revenue of tourist areas, and GDP from 2008 to 2023. Finally, the following conclusions are drawn: The short-term pulling effect of economic growth on tourism demand is significant, but there is a lag period of 1-2 years. Meanwhile, the feedback of tourism to the economy is limited (the contribution rate is less than 3%). Based on this, this paper proposes to establish a collaborative mechanism of "tax optimization - industrial upgrading". By adjusting the distribution of cultural and tourism taxes, strengthening the deep integration of the tourism industry with local scientific, technological, and cultural resources, and establishing a data-driven dynamic policy evaluation system, bottlenecks such as the development gap of tourism resources and the insufficient efficiency of consumption conversion can be broken. Provide systematic solutions for the coordinated development of Beijing's urban tourism economy.